I don’t assume the Mets have as sturdy a maintain on the NL East as most bookmakers do. The Mets’ odds to win the division are priced round -225 at most U.S. retailers, however I believe that’s manner too excessive contemplating the schedule and the potential that Jacob deGrom may miss an prolonged interval.
The Mets are a wholly completely different staff with out deGrom, and it will likely be extra noticeable as we get nearer to August. Comebacks in opposition to the Pirates and the Reds are one factor, however the Mets have a really robust schedule beginning after their subsequent homestand ends Aug. 1.
Starting Aug. 2, they must run a gauntlet of opponents, doubtlessly with out deGrom, so we’d see a a lot completely different image within the NL East standings by Sept. 1.
The Mets have three off days in August. Beginning Aug. 10, they may play 13 days in a row, internet hosting the Nationals and Dodgers after which visiting the Giants and Dodgers. After a single time without work, they face one other stretch of 14 video games in 13 days in opposition to the Giants, Nationals and Marlins. The Mets face the Nationals 11 instances between Aug. 10 and Sept. 6 and play 13 video games with the Giants and Dodgers in that interval. That may be a robust schedule for any staff, notably one which may very well be lacking its ace.
Not solely will the Nationals have an opportunity to make up vital floor on the Mets with all of their head-to-head video games, however the Nationals end the season with a month of video games in opposition to the Braves, Pirates, Marlins, Rockies, Reds and Crimson Sox, with doubtlessly solely three of their final 25 video games in opposition to opponents with information over .500.
For all these causes, I guess the Nationals to win the NL East at 14/1 and to make the playoffs at 11/1 when these numbers have been accessible at DraftKings.
DeGrom seemed like a lock for the NL Cy Younger and was the favourite for MVP, however NL MVP odds have been off the board for a number of days with the announcement deGrom is on the injured record once more with a strained forearm.
I make deGrom’s MVP odds about zero % proper now, as it’s extremely unlikely he’ll pitch greater than possibly 150 innings. With that workload, deGrom would win the Cy Younger with the fewest innings by a beginning pitcher in trendy historical past. Blake Snell received it with 180, and Clayton Kershaw received with 198²/₃. I can’t see deGrom getting critical MVP consideration with solely 150-160 innings, and it’s questionable whether or not that’s a big sufficient workload for him to even win the Cy Younger.
Don’t sleep on Soto
One of many preseason MVP favorites had a quiet first half however is lastly heating up. Washington’s Juan Soto was hitting .301/.420/.512 and was the primary participant in historical past with 5 house runs and 10 hits in his first 4 video games after the All-Star break. These numbers in Soto’s age 21-22 seasons put him in the identical firm as Corridor of Famers Ted Williams and Jimmie Foxx.
With the Nationals’ favorable schedule, Soto’s MVP marketing campaign is much from over. His odds have been as excessive as 80/1 through the All-Star break, however I count on them to open a lot decrease if and when any U.S. bookmakers get round to pricing the market. In accordance with my inside MVP numbers, I make Soto the third favourite at +1699. I make Fernando Tatis Jr. +101 and Max Muncy +1598. I’d guess Soto at any odds above 20/1 when they’re reposted, and I count on his odds to maintain dropping.